Two months ago I published one post dealing with selling data and the evolution, over the last years, of the electric cars in Europe.
To avoid of causing useless wars, I limited to reporting market data (ACEA) and to suggesting how to read them analytically and how to contextualize them.
But in private, someone wanted to charge me with provincialism, saying for instance:
“…Pietro, but the China? That is the reference market.
The Italian and European markets are relative (A/N: ?!?!). The Chinese Boom will force everyone, overdue, to chase the tiger (electric)…”.
At this objection, because I was unprepared and I belong to that extremely rare species – endangered quickly – which talk only about topics they know, I took time out to analyze some data!
So I retrieved data and I analyzed scattered notes here in the blog.
The China and the electric revolution!
The history has started when the China – which, we remember, is a communist country so that it has not a market economy but a planned one (fellow economists forgive me) – decided to skip the endothermic motorisation and to project directly to the next step, which will come sooner or later, of electric cars.
As a consequence it was launched an incentive plan which, by 2020, would enable it to get a fleet of 5 million not endothermic cars.
The plan foresaw:
- Several infrastructure;
- Different disincentives (for example who register an electric car isn’t subject to the quota of license plates);
- The “classic” economic incentives;
- The development of public transport based on electrics (I remember the interesting project of replacing the circulating taxi with the new ones totally electric).
But in January 2015 the Chinese government, which I remember talked about 5 million cars by 2020 – considering that at the end of 2014 the registered cars were only 300,000 – reduced the target to 1 million i.e. -80%!
The “newness” is that this decision led to reformulate the incentives downward by taking other roads and among which the increase of the investments in other forms of power source… the CNG for example.
Yes, the dear old CNG!
With a base consisting of a fleet of 4 million vehicles already powered by CNG, of which about 2.6 million are private cars, it will be invested 450 million dollars to build new CNG refuelling station, a kind of virtuous emulation of the Coast to Coast that in the USA allows to reach the eastern and western ends using only CNG!
This procedure will lead, by 2020, to the reduction of the demand of 560,000 barrels of crude oil per day!
In fact, the estimation is that this plan will increase the number of CNG vehicles in these terms:
- Commercial vehicles, ie those that do more km and with older technology, will become from the current 1.4 million to 2.3 million;
- Vehicles for private use will exceed 4 million.
I leave to you the conclusions and evaluations….
Translated by Federica Izzo