In Europe won’t be a recovery as in the USA


Few days ago we published a post where I announced the USA sales data and how the Downsizing “famous theory” , well known as the philosophy of Economics decrease, is only another hoax by popular influencers and speakers to make money with books and different conferences.

I have already talked about it during the consumptions crisis, declaring how the Downsizing was only a contingent need and at all a general revolution in customs.

My opinion was originated from a finding of facts, or better of numbers. Worldwide most of economies, where the crisis hit stronger, the gap among social classes sharpened; in a few words there were increasingly rich people more rich and poor people poorer.

So that, as a consequence, almost all the middle class downgraded to classes with lower income. A sort of “Hooking effect to superior class” (from Life-cycle hypothesis, Modigliani- Nobel prize winner for Economics); but in reverse.

To me, this reduction of consumptions didn’t represent a turning point but only a parenthesis for two reasons:

1. The crisis time was too short. The person who was born and lived in a certain context, as soon as possible, would reclaim his lifestyle gaining groung;

2. We weren’t in a postwar condition where everyone losts everything. There were a situation in which the Status Symbols still had “worth”.

Obviously, as you know very well, this doesn’t arouse interest because it is told by NOBODY. But, at the same time, the same “influencers” , as previously mentioned, now publish other books and head other conferences changing the scene; only to make more money and that’s that.

Now, clarified this aspect, almost procedural/historical, let’s wonder if in Europe, in the automotive field, we will have a market recovery over a short term equal to the USA.

My answer is no!

EURO vs. Dollar 24/52

My answer is the result of two considerations. The first from the Macro economy and the second from Micro one.

Macroeconomic date are notorious and if we compare the data of the real economy of the US to the European forecasts, even the most optimistic ones, a real recovery won’t be before the 2015/2017, or at least not for all EU members. Coming back to automotive, it being understood that it is one of the most labor-intensive fields that we have in Europe, it will follow the Macro trend, and I’m not saying anything new or particular….

The confirmation of this comes from the Frankfurt Show 2013 message; full of not-news (about hybrid cars).

So, considering the US data, what will be the thought?

Nobody still believe in the European recovery, not even the car manufacturers who have a worldwide vision. They don’t believe it because there isn’t a single policy considered in its totality, which deals with structural themes of industry, finance and taxation from a communitarian point of view.

Which is the result?

We flood the market with the news following the rhythm of decrease, we support the “vulgate” according to which we have to think about our children’s future (ONLY) with our behavior and we buy a new type of car even if it is less efficient and, perhaps, more polluting.

In this regard I consider brilliant the post on the newspaper “Il Sole 24 Ore” (7th August 2013) “Cars, a business only for rich” written by Pier Luigi del Viscovo.

A movie already seen , that everyone pretends not to remember…Diesel, we get the 60% of the Diesel sales and now it turns out that the average Italian drives 60km per day and morally (and economically) , it is better to buy the electric or hybrid car.

While the person who buys a diesel car is a future generation’s assassin!

Why these data weren’t published before? .. at least did the “notorious speakers” know them? Or they knew them but they didn’t tell anything because otherwise wouldn’t the fee be charged?

This would be (been) the real Downsizing!

Translated by Federica Izzo

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