Global automotive trends 2011

 
Automotive trends

Globals Sales Meeting © by meetingspodcast

Global light vehicle industry in the 2011 continues to grow and is projected at over 75.5 million units, new all-time record, 3.3 million up on last year. In November it was 6.386.000, 5.2 up on last year.
All regions achieved year‐on‐year improvements, with the exception of Western Europe which is being hit by the euro-zone debt crisis and is probably entered in recession area in many key countries.

Global sub-area
We at focus2move have divided the global sales in 12 regional areas. Some are represented by a single country (China, Japan or Russia) others are entire continent (Africa).

China preliminary data indicates  a slow pace (+0.4 pct.) in November for the biggest global country (24.5 of global sales in 2011) that’s is projected at a very low 1.5 increase for the full 2011 year and declining volume in first quarter 2012.

N.A.F.T.A. very positive month, with U.S. at +13.3, Mexico +10.0 and Canada +4 pct. The Nafta area (this year representing 20.2 pct. of global sales) has now surpassed again Western Europe and is showing a positive pace, with growing expectation over next months, supported by low level of inventory and relative low push over sales incentive. As the US economy is expected to further recover in the next year, the market should not be too much involved in the European financial crisis.

Europe uncertainty surrounding the euro-zone debt crisis and its potential implications has hit consumer confidence, and so the latter for market’s momentum is unsurprising. November was again negative for car passengers by 4.4 pct. and LCV still growing segment is not avoiding a 2nd consecutive decline for the area. Germany remains little positive, but all the other Big 4 countries are negative. Fleet market is sustaining the volume and this leaves short opportunities to avoid a market drop in the next months. Europe is now projected to close the 2011 flat on 15.2 million vehicles, but negative expectations are now a general view for next half.

Russia continues its robust growth and in November was 26 pct. up. Full year is now projected at 2.650.000 vehicles, 2nd best performance all-time. Uncertain is the next half forecast in case Government will interrupt current incentive scheme in support of the demand.

South America with 495.000 registration the area reported a + 4.1 pct. increase. Now that the biggest country – Brazil – is in negative area, the performance is still notable. All the area continues to show strong sale increase driven by a positive economic momentum joint with low rate of cars per citizens. The 2011 is projected at 5.7 million vehicles, 12.1 pct. over last year.

Japan November with a +22 pct. year on year has confirmed the October solid recovery from the earthquake and supply chain disruptions. The year is now projected at a full year decline of only 16 pct. at 4.1 million, while next month will continue to be very positive.

ASEAN Thailand’s devastating floods have reduced the growing speed of the region, with all countries facing shortage in vehicles and parts supply. Indonesia is now the faster growing market in the area. After an October slightly negative, November was + 6.9 with the full year projected at 2.564.000 units, 9.4 up on 2010. Next year should be a double digit growing.

Oceania The Australian market posted a 1mn‐unit rate for fourth consecutive months, rebounding strongly from the country’s severe floods earlier in the year and Japan’s supply chain problems. However the country is now facing supply shortage due to Thailand’s devastating floods.

Africa Data of the black continent are projected on the base of available data with a statistic error in the 5 pct. range. The Continent continues to suffer in the Mediterranean region after the recent politic events in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt. However the two major countries, South Africa counting 36 pct. of the entire new vehicles sales and Algeria, have a very positive trend. The 2011 is projected at 1.670.000 sales, with an increase of 9.2 on last year. For 2012 expectations are for a double digit growth.

Middle EastAlso for this area total data are projected, considering not all the countries are reporting monthly sales data. The area is growing thanks to the very positive trend in Turkey, the 2nd market in the region after Iran. The year is projected at 3.1 million vehicles, 8.5 up on last year.

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One Comment

  1. Hi Carlo,
    very interesting your article!
    I hope to read others data sheets in the next months so we can see the development of automotive market in the world.
    Many Thanks

    PM

     

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