This following article is the second contribution, and is a statement, by focus2move.
Global cars sales outlook
2012 started full of uncertain for OEMs in the automotive industry.
The Top Executives can count on clear trends just in less than 50% of global markets, while for the rest, the uncertain is really high and they struggle on taking decisions about where to attack and how.
In the last years the world was divided in two:
- the “Mature Markets”, well known, stable and some time declining. They were Europe, US/Canada and Japan;
- the second group was including BRIC countries and others “new markets” such as Indonesia, Mexico, Malaysia, Argentina and others.
From one side, the developed markets were not providing growth opportunity, but were representing a very well known field of battle for competition on single market share point. In these countries, to forecast was easy, in a band of few percentage points.
From the other side, in the emerging markets there was a rush to take favorable positions before single market consolidation. In many cases the performance was not an effect of sales ability, being more related to the OEM ability to penetrate the market accordingly with the local rules.
The 2012 is now representing a great change!
Emerging markets rush is over!
Yes, the ratio between circulating car park and people is still indicating a wide growth potential, but infrastructural limits, pollution, huge use of alternative way to move (motorbikes as first) has interrupted the growth.
India, Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia are not growing since months and China 3pct. growth officially registered in 2011 is quite uncertain (various “unofficial” sources reports that the 18.3 million sales were only wholesale, while real registrations market is 1.5 millions below).
Russia strong recovery in last 18 months is related to high incentive support provided by the Government and we expect a sharp decline as this incentive will be over.
Europe is now declining. And this decline is not just in Spain and Italy, but will involve many countries (France as first), probably in a not expected dimension.
Other big markets looks stable (Australia, South Korea, Canada, Mexico) and so the only really good news derives from US market (+11% in January).
In conclusion, 2012 will probably beat the 2011 all time record of 75 millions light vehicles sold globally. But the net growth will be limited to no more than 2 millions.
Global Light Passengers Vehicle registrations – Feb 2012© by Carlo Simongini
