Jato Dynamics presented the data of the EV’s registrations in Europe. Hooray: compared to 2010, the sales grew by 938%! Nine-hundred-thirty-eight percent!! A successful market, despite the controversies. I feel the bad smell of lies. Over 7 million registrations, 5,222 were electric cars, less than 0.001% of the total market. Last year were 507. In Germany 1,020, France 953, Norway 850, 599 in England, in Copenhagen are sold just 283. In Madrid and Stockholm 122; in Italy … 103. Need we say more? Facts-and-figures worth a thousand words.

In Frankfurt (Sept. 12^th) Carlos Ghosn, chief executive officer of both Renault and Nissan, remains bullish of the EVs market. Demand for Nissan’s Leaf has outstripped expectations “when we first predicted a 10 percent market share, people said we were being extremely optimistic, since then, it’s the experts who have increased their forecasts”, said the CEO – as reported by Bloomberg.

Facts-and-Figures. In Germany for those who choose a zero-emission vehicle the incentives given by the Government is only 380 euros; in Italy 1,200; in France 5,000. In Denmark – including tax breaks and deductions – approximately 20,000. Despite this big discrepancies, yet Berlin is the most important market, while in Copenhagen are sold just 283. Other data? The registrations of EVs in Spain, grappling with a difficult economic crisis, are identical to those of the rich Sweden: 122.

First of all congratulations to Jato International for the research they conducted: this is the first time we have the opportunity to know the “real” numbers. Beside this, I think that facts-and-figures count; those published after the Jato’s serious research are quite clear: in just one year an increase of 938% in the EVs total EU market!

You’ll see that someone ‘involved’ close to the reality of this market, in the coming weeks will exploit the data of this impressive “3 digits” growth! Maybe to ‘draw on’ more contributions from Governments or Investors, perhaps to give a jolt to the asphyxiated stock exchange, maybe to develop a new Mktg campaign for the EVs, or just to demonstrate he was right arguing that there is a market for these vehicles!

Of course there is a market! It ‘obvious that the current sales – though supported by great contributions/communication – are not in line with the real potential of this ‘philosophy of life’; although it is amazing to see that in the ‘ultra-environmentalist-ecologic’ Stockholm, only 122 EVs have been sold.

In any case these are interesting numbers. But really very far from the market share expected by ‘investors’; and very different from what announced in the last 3 years with blasts of trumpets and drum rolls by OEM, NSC and Governments.

As a further comment to these unexpected data, you should know that in the calculation are indented cars that should not be considered as an ‘purely’ electric – as Opel Ampera and Chevrolet Volt – and many hundreds of these five thousand were registered by NSC and OEM for drive-tests, press releases and promotions.

The whole supply chain of the EV’s is in late: the Car of the Year 2011 should have been available in the show-rooms since October 2010. Nissan scheduled 4,200 sales of Leaf during 2011 in Italy. It is not yet seen around, if not only during some events and exhibits with politicians and actors. The GM plant in Smyrna (Tennessee) has been closed and will reopen at the end of 2012; it was intended to produce 35,000 Volt in 2011. Other strange coincidences: the creation of the new Renault plant in Flins for the production of batteries for electric cars, initially scheduled for 2012, was postponed until 2014/2015. A few days ago was launched the first Kangoo ZE. Salesmen don’t even know it exists. Please, enter into a Peugeot dealership and schedule a drive-test with a iOn; it will be interesting to know what they will tell you!

Hey Friends, I really don’t know what will be the EVs forecast for the next 3 years. I only know what OEM and NSC declared in the past and will declare in the next months. Or what analysts and experts sustain. Im afraid that soon bombastic declarations will speak again about the 3 digit growth of the EU mkt (+938%)!

Forecast were wrong, and declarations were… disputable. Nissan announced they has delivered 12,000 of the Leaf model since its introduction in December 2010, Carlos Ghosn said in Frankfurt. The Japan-based Nissan said the U.S. sales of the model totaled just 6,168 (last November it planned to sell as many as 25,000 units during the model’s first year). PSA Peugeot Citroen, It has sold 3,000 since Jan. 1. (the forecast was 7,000 combined deliveries of the iOn and C-Zero models for 2011). Opel and Chevrolet told they sold during pre-sales all the Ampera and Volt available. Also Renault sold some EVs; at Toyota and Honda they developed their ‘home tasks’. Only Fiat did not declare anything: obvious, they don’t have any EVs in their new products pipeline!

• First question: need arithmetic? 12,000 (Ghosn declaration) minus 6,168 (Nissan US sales) = 5,832 (Nissan EU sales?). If we sum the sales declared by all the other manufacturers – PSA, Opel, Chevrolet, Renault, Tesla, Reva… – and the total of the EU sales is 5,222, who is telling ‘sweet little lies’? (Hey do you remember Fleetwood Mac?).
• Second question: which is ‘the possibility’ of a new technology such as EV to penetrate the market quickly Vs conservative interests totally in conflict with the new technology (not just talking about fuel, but also distribution chain and plants) knowing also that the new technology is ‘much more’ expensive than the traditional one, and has some important limitations such as autonomy?

A Friend of mine – involved in the EVs business – he always tells me that this is a marathon not a 100m. sprint; who invests about EV has a long-term goal, do not plan to make money right away. But if you do not speak about… you will not even sell one! So, welcome bombastic communications and declarations!

Only Audi speaks clearly (even if in a low voice)! The MD of Audi, Rupert Stadler, in an Corriere della Sera interview - Oct 2nd, 2011 – speaking about the Audi’s programs, he mentioned the EVs vision and programs of the brand. Even premium brands will make their contribution to the reduction of carbon dioxide, but not before 5-10 years. “The current technology of the Audi is more targeted to hybrids, with or without plug-ins. Now are available A6 and Q5; and soon a new Q7 with plug-in technology and 50 kilometers range with the electric engine, plus other 550 with traditional engine“. 50 Km! This is what the current batteries allow at the moment. Audi is investigating new solutions that will be ready in 10 or 15 years; the new batteries oxygen-sulfur will allow a range of 500 kilometers. Soon there will be a pure EVs R8, with a range of 260 kilometers. It will be a laboratory to produce in small series.

CA(R)puccino!  Determined that the EVs are in late, what about this equally ecologic and better tasty… coffe-car?

Maurizio Sala